Need to Be In It To Win It - Spain 2022
Source: FIA
The Spanish Grand Prix gets a bad rap for producing dull races largely due to its circuit layout not being conducive to overtaking - especially the clunky sector 3 chicane. And while these problems weren’t solved by any means, this year’s race was able to put on a surprising spectacle that transformed the difficulty in overtaking into an atmosphere of suspense. The intense heat and a few timely but impactful gusts of wind threw a spanner in the works of some race strategies, producing an intriguing race that highlighted the importance of a competent and daring pitwall as well as having a duo of consistent and capable drivers. Let’s jump straight into it.
Two is Better than One
Chart 1: Cumulative Delta Plot
It was another race with Charles Leclerc and Max Verstappen lined up on the first row of the grid. Another race that carried the anticipation of an intense duel between the key championship protagonists. Leclerc had Verstappen covered on the run down to turn 1, setting up for a race of cat and mouse that was likely to be decided on which driver and car package had the better tyre wear.
Both teammates: Sergio Perez and Carlos Sainz were not far down the road, but were disrupted by the Mercedes of George Russell who had muscled his way into contention at the start of the race. And while Perez had his first stint be compromised in a marginal way due to the obstructive Mercedes, Sainz faced the bigger issue of an off-track excursion - instigated by a powerful tailwind that sent his Ferrari spinning into the gravel of turn 4. The cost of this incident was significant and highlighted in the big dip in Chart 1.
In an almost carbon copy, Verstappen too was another to fall victim to the bellows of Mother Nature though managing to keep control of his car better than his ex-teammate. Regardless, the Dutchman lost ground and crucially fell behind both Russell and Perez. With all of this going on, Leclerc was left to himself and allowed to create a comfortable cushion in the lead. That is until the Monegasque driver suffered from a dramatic and sudden power unit failure, forcing him to retire from the race. As such, the fight for the victory shifted from the 2022 classic of Ferrari vs Red Bull to Mercedes vs Red Bull via Russell. And while this bears some nostalgia to the nail-biting rivalry of last year - this year’s Mercedes is very much a work-in-progress. Red Bull looked to be set for an easy win. Which begs the question: where was Sainz in all of this?
Chart 2: Lap Times Compared - Ferrari and Red Bull
While the already discussed spin was largely influenced by factors outside of the Spanaird’s control, the poor get away from the line and troubles in race pace were less than ideal. Chart 2 above provides much of the necessary detail to evaluate Sainz’s performance against his teammate and both Red Bull drivers. The first stint was heavily compromised due to the damage to his tyres - requiring Sainz to come into the pits for a new set of rubber. After taking this reset, his pace was materially better than before, but still only on par with his teammate - who was on quite mature soft tyres at that stage of the race (laps 15 to 21). During this time Sainz was lapping at a similar pace to Verstappen but this misses the context of Verstappen behind stuck behind Russell which nursing an intermittent DRS issue. Yes, Sainz was facing his own troubles with traffic by way of Valterri Bottas but there is a difference in battling a Mercedes vs an Alfa Romeo. Putting these factors into context and the first half of Sainz’s race was less than impressive.
Things did improve when Sainz took his final pitstop to claim free air while Bottas opted to stay out (a potential strategic misstep), which allowed the Ferrari driver to lap on par with Verstappen once again - albeit this time with fewer caveats to performance. But it is difficult to view this detail as a saving grace for Sainz’s overall showing since he was totally out of the fight for the win, let alone a podium. With Leclerc suffering his engine issues, this was Sainz’s race to win. And while some factors were out of his control, there were many that were.
This is perhaps best exemplified when looking at the performance of Perez. While Perez didn’t have to deal with the wind, he did have to make up for the initial deficit caused by Russell. And Perez was able to do just that. Perez was able to extract more pace from the car relative to Sainz - with this pace being better than Verstappen at different stages of the race. The key point here is that Perez was competitive enough to fight for the win but also provide Red Bull with the additional levers they needed to help Verstappen get to the top step. Perez is delivering in his role as the second Red Bull more effectively than last year and more effectively than Sainz has been able to do at any stage this year. This could be a telling detail for the story in the constructor’s championship if Sainz is not able to get on top of extracting maximum performance from the Ferrari package.
Despite it being short-lived and supported by external factors, Leclerc did seem to have the measure of the front pack in terms of race pace. This is an overall positive indication for Ferrari given the upgrades and upcoming race in Monaco. Though this will need to be something that’s seen across both cars - especially in the face of a potentially resurgent Mercedes.
Sometimes More Stops Is Better
Chart 3: Tyre Strategy Summary
Another crucial element of the Spanish Grand Prix was the choice of tyre strategy. Formula 1 teams will always push the envelope to minimise the number of pitstops required in a race. But the hot conditions at the Circuit de Catalunya reminded strategy teams that sometimes greed isn’t always good. Chart 3 showcases the finishing positions of all the drivers as well as the tyre strategies that got them there. What stands out here is the dominance of the 3-stop strategy amongst the other alternatives. Yes, the pace advantage of the top teams will have a large part to play in this, but aside from Bottas, no one else is able to make the strategy sing. The next best finisher on the strategy was Sebastian Vettel in the Aston Martin who trailed the 3-stop of Yuki Tsunoda in the AlphaTauri. The 1-stopper was even worse, though was largely influenced by the lap 1 impact between Kevin Magnussen and Lewis Hamilton.
Chart 4: Lap Times Compared - 1-Stop vs 2-Stop vs 3-Stop
While Chart 3 showed the high-level implications of strategy to result, Chart 4 sheds some light on what such decisions mean when it comes to race pace. One of the most striking observations from this chart is the abysmal performance of the hard tyre from the Haas of Magnussen. Allowing for the caveat of potential sustained damage from the lap 1 incident, the hard tyre was at least 1.5 seconds a lap slower than the performance of the other drivers plotted on this chart from approximately lap 50 onwards. Making this strategy work - even for someone who hadn’t tangled - was ambitious at best.
Next in consideration is the 2 stopper that was championed by Bottas and mirrored by Vettel. As Chart 4 shows, Bottas had exceptional pace in the first two stints that set him to have the option of going either way in the final stint. While his pace from lap 35 onwards was still competitive, the performance differential (relative to Esteban Ocon) fell away after lap 52 onwards. This, alongside signals from other drivers, was telling that the 3-stop strategy was the optimal strategy. However, Bottas had enough of a buffer to be tempted to hold out. And while a P6 result is still impressive for Alfa Romeo, the question still remains: was there potential for more in the car? Getting strategy decisions such as these optimised is what Alfa Romeo needs to move closer to the front of the pack - especially with the difficult performance from Sainz and the engine issues for Hamilton.
Chart 5: Cumulative Delta Plot
So while Bottas was still able to make the 2-stop strategy work, what happened to Vettel? Chart 5 showcases that Vettel’s 2-stop strategy was delivered through extreme tyre management but with limited upside in late-stage pace. The first stint was very long, perhaps too long as Vettels’s gap continued to open up relative to Bottas and Ocon. The German’s pace moderated in the following stints but failed to materially improve or outperform his peers to be able to capitalise from the early pain. The strategy worked for Bottas because the car had enough latent pace to do so - while the Aston is still stretching to extremes to get into the points.
And while Daniel Ricciardo was on the right strategy, he didn’t have any pace to be able to make an impact in the race. The first stint was short and poor, falling away from the competition in a considerable fashion. The second stint wasn’t much better, losing ground to Vettel despite being in a better car. The final two stints were better but only served to maintain the relative standing. Compared to his teammate, Lando Norris, who was sporting an equivalent strategy and nursing a sickness, Ricciardo was another who is struggling to extract the maximum from the car.
Watchpoints for the Next Grand Prix
Formula 1 returns to the jewel in its crown around the streets of Monte Carlo. Spain, particular sector 3, gave a telling window into who may or may not have the performance going into the tight and twisty corners of the circuit. Will Leclerc be able to bounce back from this weekend’s woes and finally overcome his run of bad luck on home turf? Will Verstappen stretch his lead in the championship? Can Mercedes continue their run of form? Who will outperform in the midfield? And of course, who will survive the perils of the street circuit? It’s only round 7 and there’s still plenty to play for in this long season of Formula 1.
