Mixed Fortunes in Midfield - Canada 2022
Source: FIA
Formula 1 returned for a tour of Circuit Gilles Villeneuve for the first time since 2019. The power-heavy street circuit is a fan-favourite with a wet qualifying and engine penalties only adding to the atmosphere thanks to a mixed-up starting grid. And while the battle for the victory was a tense and slow-burn duel, the contest in the midfield was one of strategy and pace management. Of these contests, Mercedes stood out for their unexpected bounce back in form. As did Alfa Romeo with their race pace. While Alpine and Aston Martin explored a coin-flip style strategy that worked for one of their drivers while the others fell down the field. With the scene set, let’s take a closer look at understanding how these storylines unfolded through the race.
Mercedes Find the Middle Ground
Chart 1: Race Story - Cumulative Delta Plot
It was a strange, yet impressive turn of form for Mercedes. Not long ago, Lewis Hamilton bemoaned his car as “undrivable” around the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. But despite this, Mercedes and Hamilton were able to find performance and qualify the car in P4. While the weather blessed the circuit with rain for Saturday’s qualifying, it would be short-sighted to suggest that the good qualifying result was solely down to a wet track, as Sunday’s race pace would show an even mightier performance in the dry. Chart 1 above makes this point clear as day with both Mercedes drivers, in particular Hamilton, driving comfortably between the front of the field and the mid-pack and at times showing pace that was level with the race leaders.
Chart 2: Strategy Summary
But pace alone doesn’t tell the full story. Chart 1 also shows the incidence of multiple safety car periods that can threaten to upend race strategy and jeopardize race results. Mercedes navigated this safety car minefield effectively with both cars and bring home a P3 and P4 finish - which is more than can be said for the Alpine team and Fernando Alonso (but more on that later). So how did Mercedes pull it off? Firstly it started with Hamilton’s early phase of the race. The Briton was able to hang in with the front runners while edging out a small gap to the cars behind. With Sergio Perez grinding to a halt, the first virtual safety car period was triggered. Mercedes responded with Hamilton and not with George Russell. This was a sensible decision as bringing Russell in at this time would run the risk of getting bogged down in more traffic, compared to Hamilton’s situation. Keeping Russell out would also give an opportunity to split the strategy and provide the team with more options to maximise points in lieu of any unexpected events. Both drivers carried on until the second virtual safety car - this time triggered by the mechanical failure of Mick Schumacher in the Haas. Mercedes would then return the favour, this time pitting Russell for a set of fresh tyres, crucially much younger than teammate Hamilton’s as shown in Chart 2.
Chart 3: Pit Stop Gain/Loss
Normally this would hugely benefit Russell, as he also got a cheap pitstop while getting the benefit of much fresher tyres for the rest of the race. But this wasn’t the case as Chart 3 above shows how Russell lost 5 seconds to Hamilton despite lapping with a similar pace - as can also be inferred from Chart 1 earlier. This is down to the nuance timing of the virtual safety car and Russell’s position on the track. Russell had committed to the pitstop and entered the pitlane under yellow flag conditions - which were applicable near the incident on the other side of the circuit. This means there is only a localised area whereby cars would need to exert caution and decrease their speed. Not soon after, the virtual safety car was called as Russell was stopped in the pit box. Since the virtual safety car regulation applies to the whole track, all cars must reduce their speed. This is where the “cheapness” of pitting under a virtual safety car comes from. Since Russell only caught a portion of the virtual safety car, he only received a portion of the time-saving advantage while other cars lapped the circuit at a slower speed. This is what contributed to his wider gap to Hamilton post lap 20 that would last for most of the rest of the race.
Chart 4: Lap Times Compared - Hamilton vs. Russell
But what about Russell’s advantage from younger tyres? As Chart 4 above points out, Russell did have the pace advantage on the 2nd stint as can be seen from the downward sloping trend in lap times compared to his teammate, Hamilton. But as Chart 2 shows, Russell pits only one lap later following the decision to bring Hamilton in for his final set of hard tyres. Russell didn’t opt to stretch the stint and instead went to cash in his tyre offset by pitting on lap 45 and covering off the risk of an “undercut” from Hamilton. The undercut is in quotes as Hamilton already had track position, but it could still gain a time advantage against Russell if he didn’t decide to respond quickly. With no threat from behind, as shown in Chart 1, there was nothing material to be lost in making the decision.
But with the knowledge of hindsight, extending the 2nd stint could have allowed Russell the chance for a cheap pitstop under the safety car while retaining track position for the restart. Of course, there’s no way Russell or Mercedes could have known this but preparation for such scenarios is part of race strategy - and something that Ferrari was able to demonstrate with their radio communications to Carlos Sainz and being within the “safety car pit window”. Be that as it may, there is always an element of serendipity with these things and both Hamilton and Russell delivered an important points haul for the team. But as the final stint in Chart 4 shows, Hamilton was the one with the better pace after the safety car restart, with Russell ultimately paying a price for his slick tyre gamble during qualifying by needing to play catch-up in the early part of the race.
Alpine Squander Alonso’s Potential
Chart 5: Lap Times Compared - Alonso vs Peers
Turning attention to Alpine and it was a disappointing outcome given Alonso started the race on the front row of the grid. Despite pre-race optimism, Alonso was unable to get a good start and challenge Max Verstappen for the lead of the race and was instead feeling the pressure from fellow compatriot Carlos Sainz as shown earlier in Chart 1. Alonso would lose position, but still be in the mix. But Alonso’s pace would drop off following the first virtual safety car as shown in Chart 5 above. Over the next 10 laps, Alonso would continue to lose pace relative to both Sainz and Russell who also chose to stay on the medium tyre. By lap 19, Alonso’s pace was on par with teammate Esteban Ocon. This is notable as Ocon was in the same machinery and on the same tyre, yet Alpine decided to pit Ocon under the 2nd virtual safety car but left Alonso out again. While Ocon’s pace didn’t drastically improve compared to prior laps, it was a step closer to the pace of Russell in the Mercedes. Alonso on the other hand continued to bleed pace at an increasing rate.
Chart 6: Pit Stop Gain/Loss
Alonso would finally pit on lap 28 only to come out behind his teammate who started the race in P7. Chart 6 shows that the sum of Alpine’s strategy decisions led to an approximate 15-second swing in race time in Ocon’s favour. A good majority of this benefit would come from Ocon’s cheap pitstop via the safety car, with the rest down to the relative pace difference from the old mediums versus the new hard tyres despite Ocon having more time in the pitlane compared to Alonso.
Alonso’s pace improved but was still lagging behind that of his teammate. It is likely that Alpine was looking to see if a one-stop was possible with both drivers given the pace difference to others in the field and the fact that Alonso wasn’t coming through the field despite having a material tyre offset to teammate Ocon. The incidence of the full course safety car would reset the race and shift Alpine’s focus to defending against Alfa Romeo from behind. Alonso would go on to suffer some issues with straight-line speed and his over-the-line defence against Valtteri Bottas would earn the Spaniard a 5-second time penalty dropping him to P9.
Alpine may have finished in their deserved spot in the pecking order but their management of Alonso’s race, particularly with both virtual safety cars, left much to be desired given the front row start and promising long-run race simulations across free practice sessions.
Alfa Romeo Seize the Day
Chart 7: Lap Times Compared - Alfa Romeo vs Peers
It was an impressive performance from both sides of the Alfa Romeo garage with a double points finish at the Canadian Grand Prix. Zhou Guanyu was in fine form after reaching Q3 and outqualifying his teammate for the second race in a row. Zhou carried this momentum into the race with a competitive first stint, on pace with Ocon’s Alpine albeit with more tyre wear after lap 14 as shown in Chart 7. But Zhou’s main obstacle would come after the first round of pitstops and falling behind Lance Stroll - who was going long having started on the hard tyre. Despite having the fresher tyre, Zhou was struggling to overtake Stroll - who seemed to get good exits out of turn 10 and carried enough top speed to stay ahead in most of the opportunity overtaking zones. This would define most of Zhou’s race until Stroll finally took his pitstop prior to the full course safety car that unleashed Zhou for the final stint. And as shown by Chart 7, the Chinese driver had impressive pace and stayed on the heels of teammate Bottas - who largely benefitted from the reverse strategy and timing of the safety car. Having started the race on the hard tyre, Bottas was able to inherit places while the others pitted earlier on. Crucially Bottas was also in front of Stroll and did not suffer in the DRS train as Zhou did. Bottas was also able to manage his pace in the pocket of clean air behind Alonso and was able to manage his tyres to be in the window to capitalise on a safety car. This set him up nicely for a late charge on Alpine had it not been for Alonso’s creative driving. But post-race time penalties would work in Alfa Romeo’s favour and promote both drivers.
Stroll would go on to take the last points-paying position in a race of keeping the tyres alive. Stroll did a good job to ensure this while keeping several opponents behind despite very old tyres. Despite not getting the full benefit of the safety car, Aston Martin finished in accordance with expectations - at least for Stroll that is. The same cannot be said for Sebastian Vettel who had a miserable race - largely due to several mistimed pitstops that effectively took him out of the race. He was also one of the few to not pit on the final safety car which left him in a vulnerable state against those with better grip. Not an optimal weekend for a team that was had potential this weekend.
Watchpoints for the Next Grand Prix
Formula 1 returns to Silverstone and it’s a return to normal - with no expectations of engine penalties at the time of writing. All eyes will be back to the championship fight between Red Bull and Ferrari. Can Ferrari start a run of form and claw back the points deficit or will Red Bull continue their momentum and accrue more benefits from their low drag philosophy? Which way will Mercedes go at this circuit given their challenges with setup and idiosyncratic performances? And how will the rest of the midfield play out? There’s still plenty to watch out for as we gear up for a busy month of racing action in July. I’ll see you next time.
